Understanding the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) In ireland using S-I-R model and logistic growth function

Abstract

The novel coronavirus, formerly called 2019-nCoV, or SARS-CoV-2 by ICTV (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2, by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses) caused an outbreak of atypical pneumonia, now officially called COVID-19 by WHO (World Health Organization) first in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province in December, 2019 and then rapidly spread out in the whole country of China [1]. This research aims at exploring the propagation of COVID-19 using S-I-R model and the mathematical Logistic Growth Function and to understand the spread and propagation of COVID-19 in Ireland, from the date of the outbreak, i.e. 29th of February 2020 [2]. The purpose of this research is to analyse the propagation of COVID-19 in Ireland and Sweden through the compartmental S-I-R model and to forecast the same using a general growth model based the Logistic Growth Fuction, as it varies over a period.